COVID-19: Fourth wave to hit India from June, will last for 4 months, predicts study

 As per the research done by IIT-K researchers, India is likely to experience the fourth COVID-19 wave in mid to late June, and the hike is expected to continue for about 4 months.


New Delhi: As India witness a sharp decline in the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) researchers have predicted that the fourth wave may hit the nation around June 22 this year, Zee News reported.

As per the research done by IIT-K researchers, India is likely to experience the fourth COVID-19 wave in mid to late June, and the hike is expected to continue for about 4 months. However, the threat imposed by the wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, status of vaccination and booster doses.

When will the fourth wave of COVID-19 hit India?

As per the researchers, the data suggests that the fourth wave of will arrive in the country after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020.

“Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ends on October 24, 2022," they said.

“Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022," the researchers added.

How threating the wave will be?

The study suggest that there is a fair chance that a new variant of coronavirus may surface and can have an severe impact on the whole analysis. “The intensity of the impact will depend on various factors like infectibility, fatality etc,” the authors said.

The authors also underscored that the effect of vaccinations - first, second or booster dosage can also play a key role on the possibility of infection.

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